This tool correlates solar microwave flux density with near-earth proton fluxes to predict >10 MeV SEP events. In order to predict these events, the UMASEP scheme [Nunez, 2011, 2015] was used.
UMASEP makes a lag-correlation of solar electromagnetic (EM) flux with the particle flux at near-earth. The microwave data consists of intensity-time profiles at two frequencies (4.8 and 8.8 GHz) using observations from the Radio Solar Telescope Network (RSTN), operated by the US Air Force, and by the Nobeyama Radio Observatory in Japan. The near-earth differential proton fluxes were measured by the geostationary GOES satellites.
In order to use this tool, the user has to select the frequency of the MW data to be processed, and the date and time of the desired forecast, by using the following form:
Description of output forecast image
After clicking the button "Show prediction", and waiting several seconds, the output forecast image is shown. This image presents three time series:
1. The upper time series of this image shows the recent and the predicted >10 MeV proton flux. The current flux is at the left of the label "Now". The predicted >10 MeV flux is presented at the right of this label. The predicted intensity of the first 7 hours of the expected event are indicated by colors, which corresponds to certain intensity levels (in pfu) according to the vertical bar at the right.
2. The middle time series in the left image of the forecast output shows recent solar activity in terms of the microwave flux density at the frequency specified by the user.
3. The time series at the bottom of the forecast output presents the empirically-estimated level of magnetic connectivity of the observed >10 MeV solar particles to Earth.
For more information about this tool and the task within which the tool was developed, please click here.